Tebow Not A First Rounder

There is a growing conception in the media that Tim Tebow’s stock is rising. He has shown that, with only limited amounts of practice. he can adopt to a pro-style throwing motion. He also has the intangible leadership skills that many teams covet.

But any team thinking of drafting him in the top-ten, both the Bills and Jaguars have been rumored to have considered it in the past, would be acting foolish. Tim Tebow is not a top-ten talent, heck I don’t even think Jimmy Clausen is a top-ten talent.

And there is no real interest in Tebow outside of the Bills or Jaguars either. Most teams are already set at quarterback and have holes in other areas. Thus both teams could conceivably take Tebow in the second round, or trade up and pick him late in the first-round.

Look, Tim Tebow was a great college football player, maybe one of the best ever. But as we’ve seen in the past, that doesn’t always translate into pro success. He has a great attitude and demeanor and will probably find a niche role somewhere in the league. But does anyone really see Tebow becoming a super-duper star? Unless you’re a Florida Gator zombie, you probably answered no.

Draft picks are commodities that only come around once a year. The teams who never seem to win games consistently, like the Bills, are the ones who don’t use them wisely.

Bradford Seems To Have Locked Down Top Spot

In past posts, I have expressed my distaste for the popular belief that any team looking for a quick fix should draft a quarterback. I still believe that a team with as many holes as the St. Louis Rams have shouldn’t be thinking about throwing an inexperienced quarterback onto the field. But apparently, the Rams think differently as they seem to be all but settled on taking Sam Bradford first overall in the upcoming NFL draft.

And that is certainly their decision to make. I won’t harp on an issue I have already spent so much time talking about, I’ll just wish both the Rams and Bradford luck if the pick is indeed him. I will also reflect Bradford’s selection to the Rams in my next mock draft, as there is no real point in projecting a mock that has little chance of happening.

If St. Louis does pick the Oklahoma product, the biggest beneficiary might be Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen. As of now, I have Clausen sliding to the bottom end of the first-round, and that might still be true. But if Bradford goes first, Clausen has a much better chance of going in the top-ten, and if not, going to a better team than the St. Louis Rams. The Redskins are one example of a team that may trade back into the first-round to snatch up Clausen if he is available.

Another beneficiary might be Eric Berry, as his stock seems to be soaring lately. Originally projected to go sixth overall to the Seahawks, Berry could now go as high as fourth, to the aforementioned Redskins. His playmaking and turnover skills are very appealing to a team which finished in the bottom of the latter category.

As always, the weeks leading up the NFL draft are interesting to watch, and more updates, as well as a new mock, are forthcoming in the next few days.

NFL Mock Draft: 27-32

Finishing off the mock draft, here are the final six picks of the first round.

27th Pick – Dallas Cowboys – Rodger Saffold, OL, Indiana – Dallas plays in a division full of fearsome defensive linesmen, and suffered a playoff loss because of their inability to protect their quarterback. They are another team that needs to work on their offensive line depth.

28th Pick – San Diego Chargers – Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State – Matthews is a between the tackles runner that should make the Chargers offense multi-dimensional again. This should be an easy pick if he is still on the board at 28.

29th Pick – St. Louis Rams (traded from New York Jets) – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame – Those who are patient will be rewarded. The Rams move up to this late first round pick to draft the free-falling Clausen, who after being bypassed early in the draft finds a lack of suitors up until this point. The Rams still need more positions filled before they can become competitive, but drafting a potential franchise quarterback this late is too good value to pass up. The Vikings, picking next, could be in the market for a quarterback, not to mention other teams such as Cleveland that may look to leap frog St. Louis for Clausen this late. Thus it makes sense for the Rams to trade up a few spots to guarantee getting the Notre Dame product. The exact projected trade is that the Rams trade their 2nd round pick and 4th round pick for the Jets 1st round pick.

As for the Jets, they trade down because the players they are projected to take will still be available four picks from now, and picking up extra selections always makes sense.

30th Pick – Philadelphia Eagles (traded from Minnesota) – Brian Price, DT, UCLA – The Vikings are the team that should trade for Donovan McNabb. Enough waiting for Brett Favre to make up his mind on playing or not, the Vikings need to move on and make sure they have a quarterback for 2010. McNabb is a proven player and leader who could perform just as well as Favre did in 2009 for Minnesota, and giving up a late first round pick, especially after Clausen is taken, is worth it.

After all, what happens if Favre decides to stay retired? The Vikings are left to choose between Tavarias Jackson and Sage Rosenfels to run a team with championship aspirations. Why leave that nightmare scenario to chance?

As for the Eagles, Price helps them reaffirm their commitment to overhauling their defensive line.

31st Pick – Indianapolis Colts – Charles Brown, OT, USC – The consensus seems to be that the Colts need to add depth to their offensive line. It makes sense. Even with holes on defense, the primary focus of a team whose best asset is Peyton Manning should be to protect him.

32nd Pick – New Orleans Saints – Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri – With the loss of Scott Fujita, this should be an easy pick. Weatherspoon fills a gap in the defense. And his weaknesses, notably his tendency to be a disturbance, shouldn’t be as big of an issue on a veteran team with a winning history like the Saints.

Thus concludes the first round of the mock draft. I will repost the entire draft as a list for easy reference, along with notes on the terms of the trades projected.

NFL Mock Draft: Picks 21-26

Remember the standard for picks is what teams should do based on their needs and weaknesses. I also project trades where they make more sense then a selection.

21st Pick – Arizona Cardinals (traded from Cincinnati Bengals) - Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas – The Cardinals have had a tumultuous offseason, losing quarterback Kurt Warner to retirement, linebacker Karlos Dansby to free agency, and wide receiver Anquan Boldin via a trade to Baltimore. The gut reaction for many will be to insist the Cardinals draft a WR to replace Boldin and to work on repairing the explosive offense that led the team to playoff berths for the last two years.

But with Kurt Warner gone, it seems foolish to try to replicate that success. Matt Leinart isn’t the same kind of passer Warner was, and the team will probably be more successful next year if it focuses on pounding the ball with Beanie Wells and defending well. Sergio Kindle is seen by many as a top-fifteen talent, a player who for some is even a better prospect than Rolando McClain is. He also is a player who could be snatched up by the Patriots, who hold the twenty-second overall pick. Kindle could be an immediate high-impact player, and that is what the Cardinals desperately need on defense.

The Cardinals only would have to sacrifice a third-round pick to move up to get Kindle, of which they have two this year anyways, and should make the move up. The Bengals benefit from moving down because the player they likely covet, Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham, will likely still be around five picks later.

22nd Pick – New England Patriots – Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech – With Kindle no longer available, the Patriots focus on strengthening their receiving corp, which could be without Wes Welker due to the brutal injury he sustained last year. Thomas also provides security for the future, as Randy Moss is 33 years old already.

23rd Pick – Green Bay Packers – Anthony Davis, OL, Rutgers – The Packers are another good team that gives up way too many sacks to their quarterback. The problem could be part Aaron Rodgers’ fault, as the quarterback tends to wait out deep routes instead of hitting short patterns, but it is an issue that needs to be addressed. In 2009, because of injuries, the Packers consistently had an offensive line that looked like it had been put together Frankenstein-style. Players were out of position, on the other side, etc. Clearly the team needs depth at the offensive line, and Davis is the best prospect available at 23. Green Bay should supplement this pick with more offensive linemen later in the draft.

24th Pick – Philadelphia Eagles – Jared Odrick, DL, Penn State – Much like the Falcons, the Eagles are a team that is fairly complete. One area they could improve in is their pass rush, and so drafting a defensive linesmen makes sense. The best defensive teams often have depth stacked on top of more depth at their defensive line, as players who play the strenuous position often tire easily or are injured. Odrick is a solid player who comes from a good college system and should fit right into the Eagles’ locker room.

25th Pick – Baltimore Ravens - Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State – Robinson is talented enough to draw comparisons to playmakers such as Antonio Cromartie. His biggest knock is an attitude problem, and if that is indeed the case then the Ravens are the perfect fit for him. With proven leaders on defense, like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, the Ravens should have no problem steering in Robinson and getting the most out of his talents.

Robinson also fills a need for Baltimore, as the team recently lost Samari Rolle to retirement.

26th Pick – Cincinnati Bengals (traded from Arizona Cardinals) – Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma – A tight end is often a quarterback’s best friend, and Carson Palmer needs a best friend in Cincinnati. Gresham, when healthy, is a reliable, big target that should open up the Bengals’ passing game and make the offense more dynamic. The fact that the Bengals got Gresham and an extra third-round pick in this mock should make them very happy.

NFL Mock Draft: Picks 16-20

Continuing from before, here is the fourth part of the mock draft that was begun last week.

16th Pick – Tennessee Titans - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee – Over the last two years, the Titans have lost the bulk of their defensive line with both Albert Haynesworth and, now, Kyle Vanden Bosch leaving. Williams is seen as the third best defensive tackle in the draft, and should help the Titans begin to rebuild their line.

17th Pick – San Francisco 49ers – Mike Iupati, OL, Idaho – Jimmy Clausen is still on the board, but the 49ers saw a resurgence in Alex Smith last year, and no longer should be concerned about filling the quarterback position. Solidifying the offensive line should fit right in with the team’s philosophy to pound the ball with their running game.

18th Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers - Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida – The best center in the draft fills a need for the Steelers, whose protection of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been mediocre at best over the years.

19th Pick – Atlanta Falcons – Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU – The Falcons have a strong offense, with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Michael Turner. They also have addressed their secondary by signing cornerback Dunta Robinson. So it makes sense for them to take the best defensive linemen left at this selection, and Hughes is that player.

20th Pick – Houston Texans – Taylor Mays, S, USC – The Texans have a clear weakness in their secondary, compounded by their aforementioned loss of Dunta Robinson. While Mays isn’t a defensive back who can cover receivers man-to-man, he is a terrific athletic specimen at safety and could anchor the Texan’s defense in the same way Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu do for the Ravens and Steelers.

More to come soon.

NFL Mock Draft: Picks 11-15

Continuing from the mock draft in the last two posts, here are the next five picks as they should happen.

11th Pick – Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State – This pick is contingent on the Broncos making a deal to get Brandon Marshall out of town. Bryant is the best receiver in this draft class, despite missing out on most of the NCAA season last year. And if Marshall leaves, the Broncos definitely could use more pop for their offense.

12th Pick – Miami Dolphins – Rolando McClain, MLB, Alabama – The Dolphins probably would take Dez Bryant if he were available, but because he isn’t Rolando McClain is the pick. McClain is exactly the type of hard-nosed worker that Bill Parcells covets. And he would fill a need in the Dolphins’ 3-4 defensive scheme, playing opposite Karlos Dansby.

13th Pick – San Francisco 49ers – C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson – With two first round picks, Spiller is the type of luxury pick that the 49ers can afford. These days in the NFL, teams often need two, or even three, running backs. San Francisco’s feature back, Frank Gore, is very good, but also a player with a laundry list of injury problems and a history of missing one to two games a year.

Spiller is a great change-of-pace back who could spell Gore and make the 49ers offense even more dangerous. He might just be the X-factor the team needs to make the playoffs in 2010.

14th Pick – Seattle Seahawks – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan – Graham might not have the raw upside of some of the other defensive ends in this draft, but he has been a consistent performer in Ann Arbor. He should be an immediate contributor to the Seahawks and continue their defensive upheavel.

The team could also choose to go with quarterback Jimmy Clausen at this pick, as they need a young passer to groom. But I think Seattle would be better off taking a flyer on a quarterback with a later pick.

15th Pick – New York Giants – Jason-Pierre Paul, DE, South Florida – With McClain off the board, the Giants no longer have a viable candidate to draft at this spot to fill their open inside linebacker opening. Thus New York should do what they do best and focus on continuing to bolster their terrific defensive line.

Jason-Pierre Paul is seen as a player that needs time to mature and learn before becoming an every down contributor. He should find the mentoring and discipline he needs on the Giants. And for New York, Paul’s upside is great, making this a good gamble for the future.

NFL Mock Draft: Picks 6-10

Continuing from the mock draft that began yesterday, here are the next five picks as they should happen.

6th Pick – Seattle Seahawks – Eric Berry, FS, Tennessee – The Seahawks are a deceivingly bad team. That is to say, because of their past success, many people think they are a squad that is one or two playmakers away from the playoffs. But the truth is the team has a lot of fundamental problems. They haven’t been able to keep Matt Hasselbeck healthy for a couple of seasons and they lost their running game with Shaun Alexander’s decline and departure.

But what the Seahawks were absolutely dreadful at in 2009 was stopping the pass. Eric Berry has elite athletic abilities for his position and would be an immediate contributor. And with his addition, the Seahawks would have two stellar, young pieces to grow their defense around in Berry and last year’s pick, LB Aaron Curry.

7th Pick – Cleveland Browns – Joe Haden, CB, Florida – The Browns should fight their urge to take another Notre Dame quarterback with this pick, and instead draft the speedy Gator that fills a need. (But as we all know, logic is thrown out the window with this team all too often.)

8th Pick – Oakland Raiders – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma – A very solid offensive linemen whose stock has risen considerably since the beginning of the year, Williams would help provide more consistency to the Raiders offense in 2010. Unfortunately for Raiders fans, Al Davis is still in charge and will most likely waste another pick on a player who fits one of his outdated talent evaluation methods.

9th Pick – Buffalo Bills – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech – The lure of a gamebreaking running back like CJ Spiller or a franchise quarterback like Jimmy Clausen may be strong, but neither is what the Bills need. In the last decade, the Bills gambled in the first round on Willis McGahee (worked out for a year or two before he left on bad terms), J.P. Losman (the arrogant quarterback wasn’t quite as good as Brett Favre as he claimed he was), and Marshawn Lynch (again worked out for a year or two, now the relationship is crumbling.)

The point of that history lesson? Stop wasting picks on offensive players! The Bills haven’t been to the playoffs since they lost to the Titans in the Music City Miracle in 1999. They might get back there if their focus is on improving their defense for once.

10th Pick – Jacksonville Jaguars – Earl Thomas, FS, Texas – The Jaguars were seemingly close to the playoffs last year, but the truth is that they played a very easy schedule and still ended last in their division. There is nothing wrong with their offense as it is, so the problem has to be the other side of the ball. Thomas fills an immediate need and has the potential to be a very good player. This should be the pick. (And if the Jaguars pick Tim Tebow to appease local fans it would be an awful pick and the Jaguars loyal base has the right to riot.)

NFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-5

By now, my philosophies regarding the draft should be clear. So now there is not much left to write outside of who I think each team should do and why. Unlike most mock drafts, I will project trades as well. We’ll start with the first five picks of the first round.

1st Pick – St. Louis Rams – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma – I have already written enough on why the Rams should avoid the pitfalls of drafting a quarterback here. But one additional note should rest my case; the Rams were second-worst in the league in points allowed, giving up over twenty-seven points a game. The team isn’t going to win any games until they rectify that problem, and McCoy would go a long way in starting the healing process.

2nd Pick – Washington Redskins (traded from Detroit Lions) - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma – If the Lions get to their pick with Bradford still on the board, they should be able to start a bidding war for him. Both the Cleveland Browns and Washington Redskins have expressed great interest in Bradford. The Seattle Seahawks are another team that could be interested in grooming a rookie quarterback.

Using ESPN’s draft pick value chart, the Lions could trade their 2nd overall pick for Washington’s 4th overall pick and their 2nd round pick, 37th overall. If they can make a deal to move back a few spots for an additional second-rounder, it should be a no-brainer.

As for the Redskins, they desperately need to upgrade their offense. They have given Jason Campbell chance after chance to show he can be a NFL starter and he has been mediocre at best. The Redskins have too good of a defense to continue giving away games because of no firepower. This is a team that could have a quick revival with good quarterback play, much like the Atlanta Falcons had with Matt Ryan, and so Bradford should be their primary focus.

3rd Pick – Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska – The Buccaneers would jump in joy if Suh was available at the third pick. He is a top-tier talent who could anchor their defense much in the same way Warren Sapp once did. And after giving up 25 points a game in 2009, they sure could use a player like Suh.

4th Pick – Detroit Lions (traded from Washington Redskins) – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State – When you make an investment as big as the Lions did in 2009 in a quarterback, you should do everything you can to protect it. Matthew Stafford spent way too much time last season on his back, and twice suffered injuries that kept him out of games. And Detroit has almost no semblance of a running game to rely on either. With the offseason additions of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Simon, Detroit can afford to focus on bolstering their offensive line. And Okung is the best player available to do that.

5th Pick – Kansas City Chiefs - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa – Matt Cassel was sacked a whopping 42 times in 2009. The Chiefs have talent on offense with Cassel, Jamaal Charles, and Dwayne Bowe, but until they shore up their line they won’t see any consistent production. The Chiefs would probably be OK with trading down a few spots before making this selection, but don’t see any incentive for a team to trade up with Bradford already gone.

Rookie Salary Control On The Horizon?

NFL rookies drafted in the first round make way too much money. It’s a fact. In no other profession does a largely inexperienced new hire make what the top performers in their company are making right away. A finance student wouldn’t go from graduating business school to making upper six-figures for an investment bank. They would pay their dues first, gain firsthand experience of their profession, and then eventually be compensated for good performance. In the NFL, this process is reversed.

With such an illogical system in place for compensating players who have proven nothing on Sundays, it’s no wonder the league is talking about a potential lockout right now. Rookies given that much cash so early are like children who are given cookies before finishing their chores. You can’t expect them to be fully motivated to earn their treat if you reward them before the work is done. As an added side effect, veterans who have earned the right to be paid top salaries find themselves underpaid compared to their young teammates, thus creating contract disputes over value.

The draft is supposed to help bad teams rebuild and become better. But in the NFL, the worst teams have to consistently gamble that the prospect they are overpaying is a franchise player. And when they are wrong, which is more often than not, they are stuck with paying their draftee a ridiculous amount of money.

In the NBA, the system in place is much more reasonable. Rookies are paid a set amount of money based on where they are drafted (first overall gets about four million, second pick gets a little less, and so on) for a set amount of years, usually three with a team option for a fourth season. If LeBron James, already anointed a superstar before entering the NBA, could live with making a rookie salary for four years, then how can Matthew Stafford claim he is worth more guaranteed money than anyone else in league history before taking one snap?

Thankfully, the out-of-control rookie salaries are one item that the new collective bargaining agreement is said to resolve. Frankly, it is about time. As a football fan, I don’t want to see the Detroit Lions shelling out a $72 million contract for an unproven quarterback. I don’t want to see them paying any rookie that much money, or even half of that much money. They, as a group, are just not worth it.

Myron Rolle, Potential Steal

For two years, Myron Rolle parlayed his excellent athletic abilities onto the football field at Florida State. While performing for the university, Rolle helped his team win on the field, and performed well enough to be named to the 3rd team All-American squad in 2008.

But even more impressive than his on-the-field contributions were his accolades as a student. Where most collegiate athletes fail to care enough, Rolle worked hard. He graduated in under three years with a grade point average over 3.7. And he was able to secure a Rhodes scholarship, one of only  thirty-two handed out to students in America each year.

But far from seeing these accomplishments, many NFL scouts have questioned Rolle’s commitment to the game of football. Maybe because Myron has openly stated that he wants to one day become a neurosurgeon. Or perhaps because he took a year off of football to study at Oxford University.

One would think that NFL teams would want someone like Rolle on their roster. A hard-working, well-spoken young man with terrific potential on the field. A player who has both the brain and the brawn to play one of the most important positions in a team defense (safety). Instead they seem to reject the advantages a smart athlete would bring.

The difference between a successful draftee and a bust often comes down to the intangibles. It seems that every year an undersized running back or short-armed quarterback proves naysayers wrong simply by working harder than their peers. On that basis alone, Rolle should be an excellent candidate for the first round. Add in his skill set and it should be a no-brainer.

Instead Rolle is seen as a late second-rounder. No doubt to an organization like the New England Patriots who are smart enough to snatch up talent that falls that far. I hope the Lions, my team, drafts Rolle in the second round if he is there. Every team should hope for the same.