Top Five Turnaround Candidates of 2010

posted by cochise April 7, 2010

Every season in the NFL, a few teams seem to completely turnaround from a disastrous previous season. In the past four years alone, there has been an average of three teams a season that have gone from a losing record in one year to the playoffs in the next.

The exact nature of the turnaround can vary. For instance, the 2008 Panthers, who finished 12-4 with a division crown, ended the 2007 year at 7-9, just a game under .500. On the other hand, the 2008 Dolphins, who finished 11-5 with a division crown, ended the 2007 season worst in the NFL, at 1-15.

With that in mind, here are the five most likely teams, in my opinion, to go from a losing record in 2009 to the playoffs in 2010, ranked from least likely to most. (Note: the record in the parentheses after each team is their 2009 record.)

Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) – The Chiefs are more talented than most people give them credit for. They have a good, young quarterback in Matt Cassel who should only get better. They have a good duo of receivers in Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers, and they have a playmaking running back in Jamaal Charles.

If this team drafts smartly, which most expect as they are managed by Scott Pioli, they could be very dangerous in 2010. Their defense might still be a work-in-progress, but as many teams have shown in the past, a great offense can lead a team into the postseason.

Seattle Seahawks (5-11) – The Seahawks are far from the team that once was a perennial playoff team in the mid-2000s, but they play in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, where any team can have a quick turnaround.

With two draft choices in the top-fifteen of the upcoming NFL draft, the Seahawks can significantly improve if the right choices are made. In my opinion, they either need to focus solely on defense with Berry, if available, and a defensive-end, or on offense with an offensive-linesmen and either C.J. Spiller or Ryan Matthews. Being very good on one side of the ball is more likely to win games than being average on both.

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9) – I hate putting this team on the list, because in truth there is a lot to dislike about them. Their 7-9 record from 2009 is deceivingly good because the team had so few quality wins. But by finishing last in their division, the Jaguars are guaranteed another comparatively easy schedule to the rest of their division. It isn’t hard to see them winning three more games and going 10-6 next year.

But it also isn’t hard seeing them lose three more games and going 4-12 next year either.

Washington Redskins (4-12) – The Redskins already added Donovan McNabb to their roster, and still have a top-five pick to use in the draft as well. The team also added a new coach, Mike Shanahan, who knows how to create effective offenses. Washington had a good defense last year, and significantly improving their offense could be a great recipe for success in 2010.

Chicago Bears (7-9) – Year one with Jay Cutler was mostly a failure. But now it’s over and the Bears need to forget about it. The truth is that Cutler needs more help on offense, his receivers were mediocre and his running back, Matt Forte, had a very disappointing sophomore slump. But even with so=so performances out of their offensive stars and a season-ending injury to their best defensive player, Brian Urlacher, the Bears still finished 7-9.

Urlacher will be back in 2010, and he’ll be playing next to the Bears’ big free agent addition Julius Peppers. Chicago does play in a division with two other serious playoff threats, but there are no excuses for not making the postseason this year.

So there you have it, five teams that finished with disappointing records in 2009 that may be able to turn it around in 2010. What do you think?

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NFL Mock Draft: Picks 11-15

posted by cochise March 22, 2010

Continuing from the mock draft in the last two posts, here are the next five picks as they should happen.

11th Pick – Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State – This pick is contingent on the Broncos making a deal to get Brandon Marshall out of town. Bryant is the best receiver in this draft class, despite missing out on most of the NCAA season last year. And if Marshall leaves, the Broncos definitely could use more pop for their offense.

12th Pick – Miami Dolphins – Rolando McClain, MLB, Alabama – The Dolphins probably would take Dez Bryant if he were available, but because he isn’t Rolando McClain is the pick. McClain is exactly the type of hard-nosed worker that Bill Parcells covets. And he would fill a need in the Dolphins’ 3-4 defensive scheme, playing opposite Karlos Dansby.

13th Pick – San Francisco 49ers – C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson – With two first round picks, Spiller is the type of luxury pick that the 49ers can afford. These days in the NFL, teams often need two, or even three, running backs. San Francisco’s feature back, Frank Gore, is very good, but also a player with a laundry list of injury problems and a history of missing one to two games a year.

Spiller is a great change-of-pace back who could spell Gore and make the 49ers offense even more dangerous. He might just be the X-factor the team needs to make the playoffs in 2010.

14th Pick – Seattle Seahawks – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan – Graham might not have the raw upside of some of the other defensive ends in this draft, but he has been a consistent performer in Ann Arbor. He should be an immediate contributor to the Seahawks and continue their defensive upheavel.

The team could also choose to go with quarterback Jimmy Clausen at this pick, as they need a young passer to groom. But I think Seattle would be better off taking a flyer on a quarterback with a later pick.

15th Pick – New York Giants – Jason-Pierre Paul, DE, South Florida – With McClain off the board, the Giants no longer have a viable candidate to draft at this spot to fill their open inside linebacker opening. Thus New York should do what they do best and focus on continuing to bolster their terrific defensive line.

Jason-Pierre Paul is seen as a player that needs time to mature and learn before becoming an every down contributor. He should find the mentoring and discipline he needs on the Giants. And for New York, Paul’s upside is great, making this a good gamble for the future.

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NFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-5

posted by cochise March 18, 2010

By now, my philosophies regarding the draft should be clear. So now there is not much left to write outside of who I think each team should do and why. Unlike most mock drafts, I will project trades as well. We’ll start with the first five picks of the first round.

1st Pick – St. Louis Rams – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma – I have already written enough on why the Rams should avoid the pitfalls of drafting a quarterback here. But one additional note should rest my case; the Rams were second-worst in the league in points allowed, giving up over twenty-seven points a game. The team isn’t going to win any games until they rectify that problem, and McCoy would go a long way in starting the healing process.

2nd Pick – Washington Redskins (traded from Detroit Lions) - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma – If the Lions get to their pick with Bradford still on the board, they should be able to start a bidding war for him. Both the Cleveland Browns and Washington Redskins have expressed great interest in Bradford. The Seattle Seahawks are another team that could be interested in grooming a rookie quarterback.

Using ESPN’s draft pick value chart, the Lions could trade their 2nd overall pick for Washington’s 4th overall pick and their 2nd round pick, 37th overall. If they can make a deal to move back a few spots for an additional second-rounder, it should be a no-brainer.

As for the Redskins, they desperately need to upgrade their offense. They have given Jason Campbell chance after chance to show he can be a NFL starter and he has been mediocre at best. The Redskins have too good of a defense to continue giving away games because of no firepower. This is a team that could have a quick revival with good quarterback play, much like the Atlanta Falcons had with Matt Ryan, and so Bradford should be their primary focus.

3rd Pick – Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska – The Buccaneers would jump in joy if Suh was available at the third pick. He is a top-tier talent who could anchor their defense much in the same way Warren Sapp once did. And after giving up 25 points a game in 2009, they sure could use a player like Suh.

4th Pick – Detroit Lions (traded from Washington Redskins) – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State – When you make an investment as big as the Lions did in 2009 in a quarterback, you should do everything you can to protect it. Matthew Stafford spent way too much time last season on his back, and twice suffered injuries that kept him out of games. And Detroit has almost no semblance of a running game to rely on either. With the offseason additions of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Simon, Detroit can afford to focus on bolstering their offensive line. And Okung is the best player available to do that.

5th Pick – Kansas City Chiefs - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa – Matt Cassel was sacked a whopping 42 times in 2009. The Chiefs have talent on offense with Cassel, Jamaal Charles, and Dwayne Bowe, but until they shore up their line they won’t see any consistent production. The Chiefs would probably be OK with trading down a few spots before making this selection, but don’t see any incentive for a team to trade up with Bradford already gone.

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