Holmes/Marshall Trade Analysis

posted by cochise April 14, 2010

A few days ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers traded Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets for a fifth-round pick. Holmes, a former first-round pick, was coming off his best year as a pro, finishing with over 1200 yards. The former Ohio State product had also been a big hero during Super Bowl XLIII, winning MVP honors. But a string of off-the-field personal problems and a pending substance abuse suspension led to the end of his time in Pittsburgh.

The clear winner of this trade is the Jets. The Steelers traded Holmes away to, in effect, cleanse their organizational image. It is doubtful they will be able to find a player who can contribute as much on-the-field as Holmes could, and considering his age they really lost out value-wise on this deal. New York gets a dynamic playmaker to put next to Braylon Edwards who can help Mark Sanchez further develop. And even though Holmes will be suspended for four games to begin the season, this is a move they had to make.

The other big wide receiver trade of the week was the Broncos trade of Brandon Marshall. Marshall has had three straight 100 reception seasons and is one of the top young players in the league. But his primadonna attitude and public feuds with the coaching staffs of Denver made it seem like Denver could never get fair value for him. But the upper management of the Broncos were patient, and they were rewarded with two second-round picks from the Miami Dolphins.

This was a rare win-win trade, where both sides got exactly what they needed. The Dolphins had few, if any, playmakers at the receiver position and upgraded to one of the best available players in the league. And the Broncos got two picks in which they could easily find high-impact players that they need to rebuild on the fly.

The trades should also affect the upcoming draft, as both the Broncos and Steelers need to replace their traded receivers. A new mock will be posted soon.

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NFL Mock Draft: Picks 11-15

posted by cochise March 22, 2010

Continuing from the mock draft in the last two posts, here are the next five picks as they should happen.

11th Pick – Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State – This pick is contingent on the Broncos making a deal to get Brandon Marshall out of town. Bryant is the best receiver in this draft class, despite missing out on most of the NCAA season last year. And if Marshall leaves, the Broncos definitely could use more pop for their offense.

12th Pick – Miami Dolphins – Rolando McClain, MLB, Alabama – The Dolphins probably would take Dez Bryant if he were available, but because he isn’t Rolando McClain is the pick. McClain is exactly the type of hard-nosed worker that Bill Parcells covets. And he would fill a need in the Dolphins’ 3-4 defensive scheme, playing opposite Karlos Dansby.

13th Pick – San Francisco 49ers – C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson – With two first round picks, Spiller is the type of luxury pick that the 49ers can afford. These days in the NFL, teams often need two, or even three, running backs. San Francisco’s feature back, Frank Gore, is very good, but also a player with a laundry list of injury problems and a history of missing one to two games a year.

Spiller is a great change-of-pace back who could spell Gore and make the 49ers offense even more dangerous. He might just be the X-factor the team needs to make the playoffs in 2010.

14th Pick – Seattle Seahawks – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan – Graham might not have the raw upside of some of the other defensive ends in this draft, but he has been a consistent performer in Ann Arbor. He should be an immediate contributor to the Seahawks and continue their defensive upheavel.

The team could also choose to go with quarterback Jimmy Clausen at this pick, as they need a young passer to groom. But I think Seattle would be better off taking a flyer on a quarterback with a later pick.

15th Pick – New York Giants – Jason-Pierre Paul, DE, South Florida – With McClain off the board, the Giants no longer have a viable candidate to draft at this spot to fill their open inside linebacker opening. Thus New York should do what they do best and focus on continuing to bolster their terrific defensive line.

Jason-Pierre Paul is seen as a player that needs time to mature and learn before becoming an every down contributor. He should find the mentoring and discipline he needs on the Giants. And for New York, Paul’s upside is great, making this a good gamble for the future.

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Bears Spend Frivolously

posted by cochise March 8, 2010

After reaching the Super Bowl in 2006, the Chicago Bears have progressively regressed. They have averaged under eight wins a year in the three years since their loss to the Indianapolis Colts in the big game. So, for the second year in a row, the Bears have once again became the big story of the free agency period.

Last year, the team made its big move by trading for disgruntled Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler. Unfortunately, Cutler turned out to be a turnover machine in Chicago and the team stumbled to a third-place finish in their division. But it wasn’t just Cutler who failed the team. Matt Forte’s steady runs of his rookie year seemed like a distant memory, as he faltered in a sophomore slump. And the team’s defense suffered injuries all year, none more critical than the season-ending one suffered by Brian Urlacher.

Perhaps with all these problems on the back of his mind, Chicago general manager Jerry Angelo signed Julius Peppers, the prize defensive end of the summer, Chester Taylor, a running back who thrived in a backup role in Minnesota for the past three years, and Brandon Manumaleuna, a tight end mainly known for his pass blocking.

Now the Peppers signing was addressed earlier, and if the Bears did indeed tamper it will be a costly contract for them. But the other two moves were both good, and somewhat underrated, moves. The offense should be vastly improved by an improved running game and better blocking.

But the Bears have yet to address their most pressing issue; which is to find Cutler a reliable wide receiver. In Denver, Jay had both Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Cutler’s struggles were not caused by a lack of help, but it sure didn’t help him to go from that pair to Devin Hester and Johnny Knox.

If there is anything clear about Cutler, it is that he cannot thrive in a short-pass offense. He gets too impatient and throws bad passes. Rather than trying to change his mentality, which is very difficult to do, the Bears should bring in personnel to help him. The aforementioned Marshall is on the trading block and available. And even without a first-round pick, the team could find help in the draft as well.

But for now, this is a good start.

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