Holmes/Marshall Trade Analysis

posted by cochise April 14, 2010

A few days ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers traded Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets for a fifth-round pick. Holmes, a former first-round pick, was coming off his best year as a pro, finishing with over 1200 yards. The former Ohio State product had also been a big hero during Super Bowl XLIII, winning MVP honors. But a string of off-the-field personal problems and a pending substance abuse suspension led to the end of his time in Pittsburgh.

The clear winner of this trade is the Jets. The Steelers traded Holmes away to, in effect, cleanse their organizational image. It is doubtful they will be able to find a player who can contribute as much on-the-field as Holmes could, and considering his age they really lost out value-wise on this deal. New York gets a dynamic playmaker to put next to Braylon Edwards who can help Mark Sanchez further develop. And even though Holmes will be suspended for four games to begin the season, this is a move they had to make.

The other big wide receiver trade of the week was the Broncos trade of Brandon Marshall. Marshall has had three straight 100 reception seasons and is one of the top young players in the league. But his primadonna attitude and public feuds with the coaching staffs of Denver made it seem like Denver could never get fair value for him. But the upper management of the Broncos were patient, and they were rewarded with two second-round picks from the Miami Dolphins.

This was a rare win-win trade, where both sides got exactly what they needed. The Dolphins had few, if any, playmakers at the receiver position and upgraded to one of the best available players in the league. And the Broncos got two picks in which they could easily find high-impact players that they need to rebuild on the fly.

The trades should also affect the upcoming draft, as both the Broncos and Steelers need to replace their traded receivers. A new mock will be posted soon.

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Tebow Not A First Rounder

posted by cochise April 8, 2010

There is a growing conception in the media that Tim Tebow’s stock is rising. He has shown that, with only limited amounts of practice. he can adopt to a pro-style throwing motion. He also has the intangible leadership skills that many teams covet.

But any team thinking of drafting him in the top-ten, both the Bills and Jaguars have been rumored to have considered it in the past, would be acting foolish. Tim Tebow is not a top-ten talent, heck I don’t even think Jimmy Clausen is a top-ten talent.

And there is no real interest in Tebow outside of the Bills or Jaguars either. Most teams are already set at quarterback and have holes in other areas. Thus both teams could conceivably take Tebow in the second round, or trade up and pick him late in the first-round.

Look, Tim Tebow was a great college football player, maybe one of the best ever. But as we’ve seen in the past, that doesn’t always translate into pro success. He has a great attitude and demeanor and will probably find a niche role somewhere in the league. But does anyone really see Tebow becoming a super-duper star? Unless you’re a Florida Gator zombie, you probably answered no.

Draft picks are commodities that only come around once a year. The teams who never seem to win games consistently, like the Bills, are the ones who don’t use them wisely.

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Redskins Trading Haynesworth?

posted by cochise April 8, 2010

Last summer, the Washington Redskins made a splashy move by signing Albert Haynesworth, widely considered the prize of the free agent pool, to a ridiculous $100 million deal, with $41 million guarenteed.

Now, just a year later, Washington is apparently unhappy with their purchase. So unhappy that they tried to trade Haynesworth for Donovan McNabb, a proposal that the Eagles wanted no part of. And the Redskins are still trying to trade the big defensive-linesmen to several teams.

The problem stems from Haynesworth’s refusal to play nose tackle. But because of Albert’s enormous contract, few teams are interested despite his immense talent.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Redskins, as they often have before, made a mistake by thinking they could win simply through spending more money than others. Nothing good can come from overpaying a player as egregiously as Washington did in this situation.

At this point, Haynesworth is worth an early second-rounder at best. For the Detroit Lions or Tampa Bay Buccaneers, teams who have interest in drafting a defensive tackle, the move could make sense even with the dollars involved. But if they can’t succeed in dealing him, the Redskins will have to just learn from their mistakes and be smarter in the future.

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Top Five Turnaround Candidates of 2010

posted by cochise April 7, 2010

Every season in the NFL, a few teams seem to completely turnaround from a disastrous previous season. In the past four years alone, there has been an average of three teams a season that have gone from a losing record in one year to the playoffs in the next.

The exact nature of the turnaround can vary. For instance, the 2008 Panthers, who finished 12-4 with a division crown, ended the 2007 year at 7-9, just a game under .500. On the other hand, the 2008 Dolphins, who finished 11-5 with a division crown, ended the 2007 season worst in the NFL, at 1-15.

With that in mind, here are the five most likely teams, in my opinion, to go from a losing record in 2009 to the playoffs in 2010, ranked from least likely to most. (Note: the record in the parentheses after each team is their 2009 record.)

Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) – The Chiefs are more talented than most people give them credit for. They have a good, young quarterback in Matt Cassel who should only get better. They have a good duo of receivers in Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers, and they have a playmaking running back in Jamaal Charles.

If this team drafts smartly, which most expect as they are managed by Scott Pioli, they could be very dangerous in 2010. Their defense might still be a work-in-progress, but as many teams have shown in the past, a great offense can lead a team into the postseason.

Seattle Seahawks (5-11) – The Seahawks are far from the team that once was a perennial playoff team in the mid-2000s, but they play in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, where any team can have a quick turnaround.

With two draft choices in the top-fifteen of the upcoming NFL draft, the Seahawks can significantly improve if the right choices are made. In my opinion, they either need to focus solely on defense with Berry, if available, and a defensive-end, or on offense with an offensive-linesmen and either C.J. Spiller or Ryan Matthews. Being very good on one side of the ball is more likely to win games than being average on both.

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9) – I hate putting this team on the list, because in truth there is a lot to dislike about them. Their 7-9 record from 2009 is deceivingly good because the team had so few quality wins. But by finishing last in their division, the Jaguars are guaranteed another comparatively easy schedule to the rest of their division. It isn’t hard to see them winning three more games and going 10-6 next year.

But it also isn’t hard seeing them lose three more games and going 4-12 next year either.

Washington Redskins (4-12) – The Redskins already added Donovan McNabb to their roster, and still have a top-five pick to use in the draft as well. The team also added a new coach, Mike Shanahan, who knows how to create effective offenses. Washington had a good defense last year, and significantly improving their offense could be a great recipe for success in 2010.

Chicago Bears (7-9) – Year one with Jay Cutler was mostly a failure. But now it’s over and the Bears need to forget about it. The truth is that Cutler needs more help on offense, his receivers were mediocre and his running back, Matt Forte, had a very disappointing sophomore slump. But even with so=so performances out of their offensive stars and a season-ending injury to their best defensive player, Brian Urlacher, the Bears still finished 7-9.

Urlacher will be back in 2010, and he’ll be playing next to the Bears’ big free agent addition Julius Peppers. Chicago does play in a division with two other serious playoff threats, but there are no excuses for not making the postseason this year.

So there you have it, five teams that finished with disappointing records in 2009 that may be able to turn it around in 2010. What do you think?

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Explaining New Mock Draft

posted by cochise April 6, 2010

Yesterday I posted an update of my first-round mock draft, without explanations. For those interested in why certain changes were made, here are short explanations for each of the modifications.

1. St. Louis takes Bradford – This appears to be close to a done deal.

2. Detroit takes Suh – The natural pick if they can’t trade down.

3. Tampa Bay takes McCoy – The Buccaneers would be happy with either McCoy or Suh, and don’t really have a say in which they get.

4. Oakland trades up for Okung – Okung is the best OL in the draft and good enough to trade up for.

5. Kansas City takes Berry – Berry’s talent seems to have swayed the Chiefs.

6. Seattle takes Bulaga – With Berry gone, the Seahawks focus on repairing their offense.

8. Washington takes Trent Williams – The Redskins get two picks for one, which they need after losing most of their picks after the 1st-round.

12. Miami takes Dan Williams – The consensus seems to be that the Dolphins need a DT more than a LB.

14. New England takes Graham – The Patriots need defensive-line reinforcement, and Brandon is better than anyone they can get at 22.

15. New York takes McClain – The Giants would love to get McClain here if he is available.

16. Tennessee takes Paul – With Dan Williams gone, Jason-Pierre is the best prospect available, and reminds many of Javon Kearse.

22. Seattle takes Matthews – The Seahawks trade down, pick up an additional 2nd-round pick, and get a RB that they desperately need to bolster their offense.

28. San Diego takes Cody – With Matthews gone, the Chargers can focus on their running back void later in the draft. Cody has great raw potential and could be a steal here.

27. Dallas takes Campbell – Bruce Campbell has the raw, athletic power to be a star, and Jerry Jones likes this kind of potential.

29. Buffalo takes Clausen – With the Rams and Redskins set at QB, the Bills become the team that needs to make this move.

31. Indianapolis takes Saffold – Saffold is a better prospect than Brown and the Colts would be happy to get him.

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NFL Draft Mock 2.0

posted by cochise April 5, 2010

A week or two ago, I posted the first full mock draft for the first round. Here is an update of that mock.

  1. St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
  2. Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
  4. Oakland Raiders* – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
  5. Kansas City Chiefs –  Eric Berry, FS, Tennessee
  6. Seattle Seahawks – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
  7. Cleveland Browns – Joe Haden, CB, Florida
  8. Washington Redskins* – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
  9. Buffalo Bills – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
  10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Earl Thomas, FS, Texas
  11. Denver Broncos – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
  12. Miami Dolphins – Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
  13. San Francisco 49ers – C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
  14. New England Patriots** – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
  15. New York Giants – Rolando McClain, MLB, Alabama
  16. Tennessee Titans – Jason-Pierre Paul, DE, South Florida
  17. San Francisco 49ers – Mike Iupati, OL, Idaho
  18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida
  19. Atlanta Falcons – Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU
  20. Houston Texans – Taylor Mays, S, USC
  21. Arizona Cardinals*** – Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
  22. Seattle Seahawks** – Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State
  23. Green Bay Packers – Anthony Davis, OL, Rutgers
  24. Philadelphia Eagles – Jared Odrick, DL, Penn State
  25. Baltimore Ravens – Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
  26. Cincinnati Bengals*** – Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
  27. Dallas Cowboys – Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
  28. San Diego Chargers – Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
  29. Buffalo Bills**** – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
  30. Minnesota Vikings – Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
  31. Indianapolis Colts – Brian Price, DT, UCLA
  32. New Orleans Saints – Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri

* – Denotes trade between the Washington Redskins and Oakland Raiders, in which the Raiders trade their 1st-round pick, 8th overall, and 2nd-round pick, 39th overall, for the Redskins’ 1st-round pick, 4th overall, and 4th-round pick, 103rd overall.

** – Denotes trade between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, in which the Patriots trade their 1st-round pick, 22nd overall, and 2nd round pick, 53rd overall, for the Seahawks 1st-round pick, 14th overall, and 5th round pick, 130th overall.

*** – Denotes trade between the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals, in which the Cardinals trade their 1st-round pick, 26th overall, and 3rd-round pick, 88th overall, for the Bengals’ 1st-round pick, 21st overall.

**** – Denotes trade between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, in which the Bills trade their 2nd-round pick, 41st overall, and 3rd-round pick, 72nd overall, for the Jets’ 1st-round pick, 29th overall.

Thoughts? Critiques? Feel free to let me know of anything you’d like to see changed.

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Redskins Land McNabb

posted by cochise April 5, 2010

Never in a million years did I, or really anyone, think that the Eagles would trade quarterback Donovan McNabb to their division rivals, the Washington Redskins. After all, the move guarantees that McNabb will play against the Eagles twice a season, and have his fair shot at revenge on the team he excelled on for the past eleven years.

But for a variety of reasons, the most prevalent one being Donovan’s lack of interest in any other teams outside the Redskins, the deal did get done. The Eagles will receive a second-round pick this year and a third or fourth-round pick in next year’s draft.

The immediate impact for the Redskins is clear; they finally have a proven quarterback to helm their team, one who should be able to score more touchdowns than the team managed in 2009. Should Washington also revitalize their running game, which is to be expected from a Mike Shanahan offense, they could be very dangerous in 2010. For the Eagles, they opened up playing time for a promising young passer, Kevin Kolb, while acquiring additional picks for the future.

In my opinion, this was a win-win trade. The Eagles have been stuck in a rut for a while, as they have been good enough to get to the playoffs but not good enough to win a title. The worst thing a team in that position can do is wait and watch their roster age and lose trade value. They need to rebuild for the future and this move, along with the release of Brian Westbrook, is a clear indicator that they know it. And I’ve always believed that professional teams shouldn’t be so short-sighted as to rob themselves of better trade value just to not improve a division rival. If you are trading to rebuild, chances are you won’t be contending immediately anyways so why not take the best value?

And the Redskins were going nowhere with Jason Campbell or a rookie quarterback. They have a good defense and could be a playoff team again this upcoming year, McNabb should definitely help their improvement efforts. But it sure will be weird to see Donovan in burgundy next year.

I’ll be posting a new mock draft tomorrow, that reflects this trade (which takes away the need for the Redskins to draft a QB completely) and other news from the past week.

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Bradford Seems To Have Locked Down Top Spot

posted by cochise March 31, 2010

In past posts, I have expressed my distaste for the popular belief that any team looking for a quick fix should draft a quarterback. I still believe that a team with as many holes as the St. Louis Rams have shouldn’t be thinking about throwing an inexperienced quarterback onto the field. But apparently, the Rams think differently as they seem to be all but settled on taking Sam Bradford first overall in the upcoming NFL draft.

And that is certainly their decision to make. I won’t harp on an issue I have already spent so much time talking about, I’ll just wish both the Rams and Bradford luck if the pick is indeed him. I will also reflect Bradford’s selection to the Rams in my next mock draft, as there is no real point in projecting a mock that has little chance of happening.

If St. Louis does pick the Oklahoma product, the biggest beneficiary might be Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen. As of now, I have Clausen sliding to the bottom end of the first-round, and that might still be true. But if Bradford goes first, Clausen has a much better chance of going in the top-ten, and if not, going to a better team than the St. Louis Rams. The Redskins are one example of a team that may trade back into the first-round to snatch up Clausen if he is available.

Another beneficiary might be Eric Berry, as his stock seems to be soaring lately. Originally projected to go sixth overall to the Seahawks, Berry could now go as high as fourth, to the aforementioned Redskins. His playmaking and turnover skills are very appealing to a team which finished in the bottom of the latter category.

As always, the weeks leading up the NFL draft are interesting to watch, and more updates, as well as a new mock, are forthcoming in the next few days.

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McNabb Is The Right Fit For Vikings

posted by cochise March 29, 2010

In my first mock draft, finished yesterday, I projected the Minnesota Vikings trading away their first-round pick for Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback Donovan McNabb. McNabb, who has spent his entire career thus far with the Eagles, has long been on the rocks with Philadelphia fans and upper management for his inability to lead the talented team to a Super Bowl win. This offseason, the team finally seems ready to part ways with Donovan, as reports have surfaced that they would trade him for a top-42 draft pick.

The Vikings, who came oh-so-close to a Super Bowl berth a few months ago, are currently without a quarterback. Brett Favre, their passer last year, has yet to confirm if he is retiring after his best statistical season ever, or returning for one more chance at a championship. As in previous years, he could remain undecided until as late as a month before the regular season begins.

For the Vikings, waiting that long is a ridiculous proposition. Without Favre, they would be stuck with either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels as their starting quarterback, and both are more suited for backup roles. Minnesota is a team that has, and rightfully so, serious championship aspirations. They have a solid defense, a terrific rushing attack, and good playmakers at the receiver and tight end positions.

Donovan McNabb is the easy solution for the Vikings. McNabb will turn thirty-four in November, but he can still play football at a very high level. Last year he passed for over 3500 yards, in only fourteen games, with close to a 93 passer rating. He should thrive, just as Favre did, in the Vikings offense. And more importantly, he would be a sure thing for opening weekend, a player who won’t shirk his responsibility to his teammates and coach to let them know his playing status.

Maybe Brett Favre wants to play again, maybe he doesn’t. But unless he is able to tell the Vikings definitively which option he will pursue before the draft in late April, the team should ensure they have a leader at their helm. As I said before, this is the right move, for both the Vikings and McNabb, and the sooner it gets done, the better for both sides.

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NFL Mock Draft Recap (aka Mock 1.0)

posted by cochise March 28, 2010

For the past week or so, I have been systematically updating the blog with draft projections, trades included. Like all first drafts, there are parts I like, and other parts I can see as needing adjustments. Thus every week between now and the actual NFL draft, I will repost my mock with changes noted.

For now, here is a summation of the mock draft for quick reference.

  1. St. Louis Rams – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
  2. Washington Redskins* – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
  4. Detroit Lions* – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
  5. Kansas City Chiefs – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
  6. Seattle Seahawks – Eric Berry, FS, Tennessee
  7. Cleveland Browns – Joe Haden, CB, Florida
  8. Oakland Raiders – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
  9. Buffalo Bills – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
  10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Earl Thomas, FS, Texas
  11. Denver Broncos – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
  12. Miami Dolphins – Rolando McClain, MLB, Alabama
  13. San Francisco 49ers – C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
  14. Seattle Seahawks – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
  15. New York Giants – Jason-Pierre Paul, DE, South Florida
  16. Tennessee Titans – Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
  17. San Francisco 49ers – Mike Iupati, OL, Idaho
  18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida
  19. Atlanta Falcons – Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU
  20. Houston Texans – Taylor Mays, S, USC
  21. Arizona Cardinals** – Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
  22. New England Patriots – Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
  23. Green Bay Packers – Anthony Davis, OL, Rutgers
  24. Philadelphia Eagles – Jared Odrick, DL, Penn State
  25. Baltimore Ravens – Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
  26. Cincinnati Bengals** – Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
  27. Dallas Cowboys – Rodger Saffold, OL, Indiana
  28. San Diego Chargers – Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State
  29. St. Louis Rams*** – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
  30. Philadelphia Eagles**** – Brian Price, DT, UCLA
  31. Indianapolis Colts – Charles Brown, OT, USC
  32. New Orleans Saints – Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri

* – Denotes trade between the Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins, in which the Redskins trade their 1st-round pick, 4th overall, and 2nd-round pick, 37th overall, for the Lions’ 1st-round pick, 2nd overall.

** – Denotes trade between the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals, in which the Cardinals trade their 1st-round pick, 26th overall, and 3rd-round pick, 88th overall, for the Bengals’ 1st-round pick, 21st overall.

*** – Denotes trade between the New York Jets and St. Louis Rams, in which the Rams trade their 2nd-round pick, 33rd overall, and 4th-round pick, 99th overall, for the Jets’ 1st-round pick, 27th overall.

**** – Denotes trade between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles, in which the Eagles trade quarterback Donovan McNabb for the Vikings 1st-round pick, 30th overall.

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